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     II 摘要 隨著當今社會經濟的不斷發展,經濟競爭日益激烈,在嚴峻的競爭環境下, 風險也相繼而來,企業在追求利益的同時必定承擔著相應的風險,如何在把握 風險中獲取最大利益成為各企業財務風險控制的重點。我國經濟的飛速發展, 給國內各企業創造了良好的機遇,但由于諸多不穩定因素,風險可謂無處不在, 財務風險作為企業主要面臨的重要風險之一,若不及時把控,財務風險所帶來 的危害將是巨大的,甚至可以讓一個企業面臨瓦解的危機。集團企業由于自身 在國民經濟中的重要地位,財務風險控制更成為了集團企業可持續發展的重要 任務,合理的預防和控制財務風險對集團企業是一次挑戰,也是一次具有重要 意義的任務。 G 集團為國有控股集團,是 J 省龍頭國有企業,對 J 省經濟發展起著重要作 用。G 集團下屬控股企業涉及產業面廣泛,隨著 G 集團的飛速發展,避免不了 面臨著風險難控制、風險意識不強、管理不夠科學等問題,財務風險控制已經 成為 G 集團管理中的關鍵部分。 本文參考國內外財務風險控制研究,結合財務風險控制的有關理論依據,以 G 集團作為研究的對象,充分分析 G 集團的背景及近四年的財務數據,從資產 結構、盈利能力、現金流角度揭示出 G 集團目前的財務風險現狀,且結合實際 情況找尋財務風險形成原因,提出對 G 集團構建相應的財務風險預警體系的理 念,從可行性和必要性中充分論證 G 集團構建財務風險預警體系的原因,同時, 闡述了 G 集團財務風險預警體系構建的過程以及運行機制,充分展示了財務風 險預警體系對 G 集團運營發展的重要性,并提出了 G 集團風險控制對策的建議。 本文從理論出發,以 G 集團作為研究案例,是一次理論與實踐相結合的研究, 是財務風險控制管理中的一次有意義的探索。 關鍵詞:集團企業;財務風險控制;財務風險預警系統Abstract III ABSTRACT The economic competition in our country is becoming more and more fierce with the development of society and economy. And in the context of the severe competition environment, the risk also comes one after another, as a result, the enterprise must bear the corresponding risk while pursuing the benefit. Thus, how to obtain the maximum benefit in controlling the risk becomes the key point of the financial risk control of each enterprise. The rapid development of economy in our country has created many opportunities for domestic enterprises, however, risks are ubiquitous because of many unstable factors. Financial risk, as one of the most important risks faced by an enterprise, the harm brought by it will be enormous if it is not controlled in time, which can even make an enterprise face a crisis of disintegration. Due to its important position in the national economy, financial risk control has become an important task for the sustainable development of group enterprises. The reasonable prevention and control of financial risk is not only a challenge, but also an important task to the group enterprises. As a state-owned holding group, Group G is a leading state-owned enterprise in J province, which plays an important role in the economic development of J province.The subsidiary holding enterprises of Group G involve a wide range of industries. With the rapid development of Group G, it can not avoid the problems such as the difficult control of risk, weak risk consciousness, unscientific management and so on. Therefore, financial risk control has become a key part of the management of Group G. In this paper, it refers to the study of financial risk control at home and abroad, combines with the relevant theoretical basis of financial risk control, and takes Group G as the object of study. The background and the financial data of Group G in the past three years are fully analyzed. The present financial risk situation of Group G is revealed from three aspects, such as asset structure, profitability and cash flow. And the reasons for the formation of financial risks are found by combining with the actual situation. In addition, the idea of constructing the early warning system ofAbstract IV corresponding financial risk for Group G is put forward by drawing lessons from Group X's response to similar risk situations. It fully demonstrates the reasons for Group G to construct the early warning system of financial risk from the the perspective of feasibility and necessity. At the same time, it expounds the construction process and operation mechanism of Group G's warning system of financial risk, so as to fully demonstrate the importance of early warning system of financial risk to the operation and development of Group G. Finally, some countermeasures for its risk control are put forward in this paper. Based on the theory and taking Group G as a case study in this paper, it is a research that combines theory with practice, which is also a meaningful exploration in financial risk control management. Key words: Group enterprises;Financial risk control;Early warning system of financial risk目錄 V 目 錄 第 1 章 緒論·····················································································1 1.1 研究背景及意義 .............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景 ·······································································1 1.1.2 研究意義 ·······································································2 1.2 國內外研究現狀 .............................................................................................3 1.2.1 國外研究現狀 ·································································3 1.2.2 國內研究現狀 ·································································4 1.2.3 文獻述評 ·······································································6 1.3 研究思路、方法與內容 .................................................................................6 1.3.1 研究思路 ·······································································6 1.3.2 研究方法 ·······································································7 1.3.3 研究內容 ·······································································7 1.4 創新與不足 .....................................................................................................8 第 2 章 相關概念界定及理論基礎··························································9 2.1 概念界定 .........................................................................................................9 2.1.1 集團概念及特征 ······························································9 2.1.2 財務風險的概念 ······························································9 2.1.3 財務風險預警的概念 ·······················································10 2.1.4 財務風險控制的概念 ·······················································10 2.2 相關理論概述 ...............................................................................................11 2.2.1 財務風險的類型及成因 ····················································11 2.2.1.1 籌資風險及成因 ·······················································11 2.2.1.2 投資風險及成因 ·······················································11 2.2.1.3 資金回收風險及成因 ·················································12 2.2.1.4 收益分配風險及成因 ·················································12 2.2.1.5 現金流量風險及成因 ·················································12 2.2.2 財務風險控制方法 ··························································13 2.2.2.1 財務風險識別方法 ····················································13目錄 VI 2.2.2.2 財務風險評估方法 ····················································14 2.2.2.3 財務風險應對方法 ····················································15 第 3 章 G 集團財務風險現狀分析·························································17 3.1 G 集團基本情況 ............................................................................................17 3.1.1 G 集團簡介 ····································································17 3.1.2 G 集團財務情況簡介 ························································17 3.2 G 集團財務風險現狀 ....................................................................................18 3.2.1 資產結構風險的現狀 ·······················································18 3.2.2 盈利能力風險的現狀 ·······················································19 3.2.3 現金流量風險的現狀 ·······················································20 3.3 G 集團財務風險成因 ....................................................................................20 3.3.1 資產結構風險的成因 ·······················································20 3.3.2 盈利能力風險的成因 ·······················································21 3.3.3 現金流量風險的成因 ·······················································22 第 4 章 X 集團財務風險控制的經驗借鑒················································23 4.1 X 集團簡介 ....................................................................................................23 4.2 X 集團財務風險控制機制不足 ....................................................................23 4.3 X 集團財務風險控制工作的改革措施 ........................................................25 第 5 章 G 集團財務風險預警體系的構建················································26 5.1 G 集團財務風險預警體系的必要性 ............................................................26 5.1.1 符合企業發展定位 ··························································26 5.1.2 履行國有資產保值增值義務 ··············································26 5.1.3 促進國有資產監管體系構建 ··············································26 5.2 G 集團財務風險預警體系的可行性 ............................................................27 5.2.1 公司高管的認可 ·····························································27 5.2.2 有較完整的財務風險預警理論支撐 ·····································27 5.2.3 財務數據公開化便于數據采集 ···········································28 5.3 G 集團財務風險預警體系的組成 ................................................................28 5.3.1 選擇單變量預警模型依據 ·················································28 5.3.2 風險預警體系的基本構成 ·················································29 5.3.2.1 數據樣本庫 ·····························································29目錄 VII 5.3.2.2 財務風險預警指標···················································30 5.3.2.3 財務風險預警區間 ····················································31 5.3.2.4 財務風險預警結果 ·····················································33 5.3.3 財務風險預警體系的運行機制 ···········································33 第 6 章 G 集團財務風險控制的對策建議················································36 6.1 G 集團資產結構風險控制對策 ....................................................................36 6.2 G 集團盈利能力風險控制對策 ....................................................................36 6.3 G 集團現金流量風險控制對策 ....................................................................37 第 7 章 結論與展望···········································································39 7.1 結論 ...............................................................................................................39 7.2 進一步工作的方向 .......................................................................................40 致 謝·····························································································41



 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